What Can Investors Expect for Tesla’s Q4 Deliveries?

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As a new year approaches the biggest question of any Tesla investor is “How many Model 3s will the company be able to ship this quarter?” With only a few days remaining to finish up last minute 2017 shipments, the electric vehicle manufacturer is certainly trying to deliver as many of the vehicles as possible.

While most investors may not be terribly concerned with Model X and Model S production, with Tesla setting their goal at an ambitious 100,000 units for the entirety of 2017 this data is hard to ignore. If they reach their goal it will set a new record for the company but with the current rate they’re producing Model 3’s, many are losing faith.

Let’s take a look at what some analysts expect from Tesla’s Q4 deliveries:

Model S and X

With Tesla goal set at 100,000 vehicles for 2017, the company will need to produce 27,000 Model S and Model X units combined in the fourth quarter to meet their goal. While ambitious, this number is achievable for the company and will set not only a quarterly record but a yearly one as well.

The goal also highlights the company’s continued growth. A production goal of 100,000 implies a 31% year-over-year growth when compared to the 76,000 it shipped in 2016. Furthermore, if Tesla manages the 27,000 Model S and X deliveries in Q4 then it would represent 21% growth year-over-year.

Model 3

While Model S and X deliveries are on investors radars, the Model 3 will be the most closely monitored and scrutinized. Released back in July of 2017, the vehicle is projected to be Tesla’s first high-volume car. The company strongly believes that the Model 3 will help the annual production rate move from 100,000 units to 500,000 units in only a year’s time. But so far investors have been disappointed with the current state of production.

One Wall Street Firm believes that the Model 3 deliveries are going to disappoint yet again. KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated its sector weight rating for Tesla shares, indicating that the company will report weak financial results for the Model 3.

“We estimate Tesla will announce delivery of [about 5,000] Model 3’s in 4Q sometime early next week, below the sell-side estimate but likely acceptable for the buyside,” analyst Brad Erickson wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. (http://cnb.cx/2CjvQ5W)

Erickson noted conversations with sales representatives at 18 Tesla stores, which revealed to him that Model 3 deliveries for the fourth quarter were going to be lower than he initially predicted. As a result of his talks, Erickson lowered his fourth-quarter delivery forecast for the Model 3 from 15,000 cars to only 5,000 vehicles.

While Tesla may be changing the world and doing great things for not only the automotive industry but they’re offering a great service for the environment as well. The company still has plenty of work to do to calm investors fears. Despite strong Model S and X forecasts, many are still wary to invest in a company that has had “A year of production hell” according to its CEO. Q4 deliveries are going to be big for those looking to invest, so hopefully the company can meet or at least come close to their goal. Manufacturing Talk Radio is keeping a close eye on Tesla so be sure to check back for any news surrounding the electric vehicle manufacturer.

Sources:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/27/tesla-inc-to-announce-vehicle-deliveries-next-week.aspx

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/27/analyst-slashes-his-tesla-model-3-fourth-quarter-forecast.html