S1-E8 Transcript TD Bank VP

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S1-E8-MTR

Introduction: Welcome to Manufacturing Talk Radio, the only show that takes a look at the obstacles and opportunities open to small and mid-size enterprises to manufacture here in America, brought to you by All-Metals and Forge Group, with your host, Tim Grady and Andrew Weiss, hey guys!

Lew: How you doing? Tim, how are you doing today?

Tim: God Lew, welcome back everybody to the show! We are pleased to have everyone back to Manufacturing Talk Radio! To all of our listeners before we get in to today’s guest, I’d like to have Lew to give us a post script from the show two weeks ago, Lew?

Lew: Thank you. Two weeks ago we had Brad Holcomb from ISM, Institute of Supply Management on the show. He was going over the ISM report on business and recorded the numbers for January. To give you a little background, the over all number for November near the end of the year last year was 57.0, December is 56.5 and January was a little bit of a shocker at 51.3, that’s a pretty significant drop, not necessarily a decline all that means is that we are just growing slower.

We are still ahead of that 50.00 number and we are hopeful that after the thanksgiving, December and January, new budget money coming about and February is going to be a more impressive number. The PMI number that they come out with is actually the purchasing manager’s index number which is reported throughout the media in the United States and they also have the PMI number for almost 85 to a hundred countries around the world that the Institute of Supply Management supplies their methodology and analysis and other countries are using them. So when looking perhaps on the internet and goggling, you can see how other countries are doing as well. So, therefore, just remember that we are growing slower, not going backwards. Tim, take it away.

Tim: Thanks, Lew, we are pleased today to have Chris Rallo as our guest, he is Vice President at TD Bank, for those of you who might not be familiar with the history and Chris will give us a little bit more TD Bank as Toronto Dominion and because I have some familiarity with the banking industry, Toronto Dominion is one of the handful of banks that is referred to as prime bank which means that they’ve got a really great balance sheet. He is here today to talk about a lot of information that will be valuable to small and mid-sized businesses and their banking relationships, Chris, how are you today?

Chris: How are you are you Lew? Glad to be on your show.

Lew: Great, glad to have you.

Tim: Chris, give us an overview of TD Bank, some histories, some who they are, where are, where they’re going?

Chris: Absolutely, TD Bank and the TD stands for Toronto Dominion is a 150 year-old bank and the Canadians decided to move south into the United States several years back and through a series of acquisitions, TD Bank in the United States came about to be and we are about 1300 stores strong, up and down the East Coast of the United States and we are  a full services as Lew said, very very financially strong and I am in the commercial lending, original banking area where we specialize in providing full spectrum of banking services to primarily family owned businesses and size anywhere from $10B – $50B in sales.

Tim: Great, great, let’s talk about the banking in general, I don’t know if it’s a myth or a reality, Chris, you’re here to kind of design that for us, are banks lending?

Chris: We are, and as a matter of fact my boss this morning was going over what loans I have in the pipeline. I think there has been a general, pervasive theme through the last several years and by the last several I mean lets say started in 2008 when the economy kind of fall off the cliff and at that time the subprime debt crisis was unwinding, we were not part of it directly but I think it caused an increase in regulatory scrutiny of banks and also an impact from the capital of a lot of banks which impeded ability and willingness to lend.

That definitely has been out there in the landscape, the flip side of the coin is that in general, particularly a lot of family businesses that we deal with, they’re manufacturing as a sector, they experienced the decline in revenues and profitability so it made it harder in general for banks to extend credit when the cash flows and the ability to repay were perhaps more strained than a normalized times. I think that we are seeing in general some slow rebound amongst the operating companies and there is a little more flexibility I would say in totality in the lending environment so while there is still probably a little more challenge than there was in early 2000 I think slowly but surely things are moving in the right direction.

Lew: Chris, being we’re talking a lot about the East Coast as a primary market for you and I presume that you are talking about from Maine to Florida. The markets that you’re going into and I know you’re into real estate and wealth development and so on and so forth. In terms of manufacturing, what industry in broad paint strokes is TD Bank is interested in? For the sake of our listeners, I’d like them to see whether TD Bank is a good potential for them as a lending resource.

Chris: Absolutely, traditional manufacturing is always high on the list, metal, manufacturing, any sort of tool and dye shops and we still have some here in Connecticut forging operations, lot of construction sector, we seem to be seeing more on the biotech side certainly here in Connecticut and I am talking more of refined sculpt but  here in Connecticut we have general links to aerospace defence industries, hence, any of the subs that are providing parts to those industries become prime targets for us.

Tim: That’s greats Chris, now, thanks for lending, the manufacturing industry needs a cash for operations, what are the best practices for approaching a bank for financing Chris, what should they be prepared to provide you?

Chris: Absolutely, great question! Banks in general will look with focus to the historical financial statements and that would be looking at 3-5 years of fiscal year-end financial statements. With family on business that are also becomes to know that the principals will stand behind the loan. That’s for less so from a credit enhancement standpoint, more so from a cooperation and standing behind the loan perspective. I think what we also are putting a lot of thought process and emphasis into is we are in some more of an up cycles, so backlogs, confirmed backlogs, dulled out shipping schedules, realistic pro-formas become very important because more times that not we are looking at needing to buy into heightened levels of sales and operating assets and supporting that cycle. So the other key component becomes getting comfortable with the inventory and the receivables that are either being distributed, supplied or produced. The character of the ownership becomes very important to us and being able to be comfortable with the financial recording.

Lew: Chris, I have an add-on to that question that I think we might be working here for commercial in just a moment or so, so I will give you the question and think about it during the break.

Chris: Absolutely!

Lew: Question being, you are talking about commercial loans, how about asset-base lending for the companies that aren’t quiet as strong as the companies that you just were describing. How does asset-base lending fit in to your market?

Chris: Great question! Asset base lending is and adjunct to a mainstream commercial lending and is an area where we have a pretty good size presence. Typically and generically as an industry, the size transactions can be anywhere from million dollars into up to the hundreds of millions but we particularly target $10M – $50M in loan size, where asset base lending differ somewhat from commercial lending is that the companies are typically somewhat storied.

Be it that there were few years of losses and that they’re on the rebound, making an aggressive acquisition, something is happening where the earnings have been thin and or choppy and the primary source of repayment flips to the receivables and the inventory and the quality and the quantity  of them  and  the ability to convert them to cash and really the credit takes on a structuring known as revolving credit where it expand and contract in conjunction with those operating assets and it’s a great structure if one is trying build out or grow a back book because as the sales and the assets expands so does the credit  is healthy.

Lew: There was an email that just came in a moment ago and it’s Bob from Minneapolis and he is asking, I don’t know why Minneapolis and there were the fact that your market is on the East Coast but its good information to our other listeners. He’s asking about how TD Bank compared to your competitive banking, how much more lenient or how much more stringent are you, you know you are on the commercial lending side and or the asset based lending side?

Chris: I would say as the bank in terms of credit profile, we are middle of the road, with a tendency toward a little more conservative, we compete based on the level of service we provide and we are very competitive as far as pricing. With respect to asset-base lending, any bank is a regulated institution and therefore the risk profile of that a bank asset-based lending shop will endure is less than that of a non-bank commercial finance operation.

Tim: Chris, I wanted to touch into 2 areas. You’ve touched on backlogs a couple of times and when we talk with Brad Holcomb of the Institute of Supply Management, that’s one of the areas that they track on a regular basis is what is happening to backlog in the manufacturing industry. I know in All-Metals and Forge Group and Lew’s Company their eyes look at their backlog to see where they have in the pipeline and apparently that’s pretty important for the lender can you give us an idea of what you’re looking at for backlog.

Chris: Absolutely, to us it’s a prognosis for success and viability. If a company is fundamentally not deviating from its mission, we can look into the historical financials and get comfortable with the predictability of the gross margin and then it really the backlog is adding substantiation to whatever projections and obviously the loan is going to get paid from future profits  so revenue and margin maintenance become key consideration. So we look at backlog, we look to prior culpable orders for correlation and margin and again trying to make the best estimates of what the future prospects holds for the company.

Tim: Okay, and in terms of TD Bank, I know you handle revolving credit, equipment real estate loans, acquisition financing, international letters of credit, export finance, cash manager,  any of those in particular or you feel you’re particularly strong and can help the small to middle mid-size enterprises.

Chris: I think we are very geared to family owned businesses, I think there are few other areas worth noting and kind of goes back to our first question of how is the perceived gap being bridged? With respect to our bank, we do a lot through the small business, SBA programs and rather than going into lot of details on exactly what those programs are, there are some very good websites. The Small Business Administration 7A program and the Small Business Administration 504 Program and the essence of these programs are to be able to do transactions which a bank could otherwise not do but the —-15:29:1—–15:29:1—–Credit of the United States Government is being added into the equation in some capacity which allows us to do the transactions and take on the relationships. So that is one area, another area where we have developed specialization and its an area I think for manufacturing and distribution in general that is growing and the opportunity to export product. We are active with the XM Bank, again, its providing ——00:16:01:5—– Credit of the US Government so that we can lend on against receivables from foreign account letters. Those are typically not permissible for borrowings at many banks though, just becomes another tool or another avenue.

Tim: Before we break for commercial, I just want to get one more quick answer out of you Chris because there maybe a general misunderstanding that you’re a bank, you’re federally regulated and the people who do asset-base lending or factoring fall under different category. Now, in terms of a bank and its ability to lend, give us just a kind of a quick snap shot, what restrictions you have, what you have to meet to satisfy your federal regulators.

Chris: Absolutely, the key driver in any bank loan is the proven cash flow of the company in other words the earning capacity has to be more than sufficient to repay the debt. That becomes the primary drivers, the secondary drivers are the capabilities of management, the second way out collateral adequacy, that primarily the asset test if you will on any bank loan.

Lew: Okay and we are going to slip out here for a couple of quick commercials and then we will be back to Manufacturing Talk Radio with Chris Rallo with TD Bank in just a few moments.

<Advertising commercial – Played>

Tim: Alright, back to our discussion of TD Banking with Tim and Lew.

Tim: Chris because we’re kind of moving back and forth on subjects here, I want to go back on factoring, that’s an area that, I’m not sure every small business really understands and you can probably speak to it a little bit and then I want to have Lew speak to it a little bit, he is very familiar with it but Chris give us an idea of factoring if you would please.

Chris: Absolutely, it is not a product in a basket provided at TD Bank but I am very familiar with it and I think it is a fantastic tool for small business owners to avail themselves of quick financing. It’ll be at more expensive than typical bank rates and should maybe be looked at in terms of the transitional bridge. The essence of factoring, probably the easiest way to illustrate it is a retailer or anybody who goes into the store and uses a Mastercard, fundamentally, that retailer has essentially factored their sale, in other words the cash is remitted from Mastercard to the retailer and lets say the invoice of the purchase price was a $100, the retailer would get from Mastercard like $99.00 in other words they paid one point but they got the cash. Apply that to distributor or to a manufacturing company, factors will lend to companies that are actually losing money because what they are doing is actually buying the invoice from the company and looking at the credit worthiness of the ultimate obligor of that invoice.

Tim: Okay and Lew you’re quiet experienced with factoring, give me some feedback, give our listeners some feedback and your experience with factoring, good, bad and different?

Lew: All over the course of almost 40 years of operating our business, we’ve gone through, as most business; we’ve gone through ups and downs and good times and bad. We have had standard commercial lending opportunities and we’ve also and are presently right now using a factoring loan basis. We find it in many ways, sorry Chris, many ways it’s easier to deal with a “factor” than a bank and obviously all of the requirements in terms of documentation and 3-5 years of profitability and so on, its not an issue that you’re factor and or purchase order financing vendor would require. We continued to have a very good long term relationship presently with a factor that we’ve been with probably 8 or 9 years. Once you get passed paying a bit of a higher rate, the method of our dealing with them become very easy and very convenient for us. So that’s been our experience for like 8 and 9 years, Tim?

Tim: Oh! Great Lew, I think that’s excellent. A question for you Chris because I know this popped up in our own heads when we heard TD Bank and I think of Sam Waters, the actor who does the TV AmeriTrade ads, the same animal, different animal or an extension of you?

Chris: It is an extension of us, the TD Ameritrade is part of our group of divisions and departments and specializations. You will see with TD Bank a very strong retail network and a very extensive set of skills and specialties in wealth management.

Tim: I’m pleased to hear you say that your bank, TD Bank, really is geared towards the family owned business. That’s unusual, I think in the banking industry where most of the banks are after larger corporate clients and don’t cater so much to essentially what amounts to probably 85% of the manufacturing business out there.

Chris: Well, its interesting that the growth comes from the family owned  businesses.  I think when the economy starts to rebound inevitably the job growth is what this smaller companies. As a matter of fact in Connecticut we even have a shortage in highly skilled manufacturing employees or be at manufacturing is also. While we are a large bank, we  run on a state wide basis, state-to-state and we really like this, the space of companies with revenues as what they say and they were from even go smaller than smaller $10M revenue size. $10M – $50M is the range which I have devoted my whole career.

Tim: Okay and in terms of Lew’s comment at sometimes they find factors easier to deal with than banks. What’s your kind of reaction to that if you would?

Chris: That does not surprise, I’ve heard that many times and I understand why. In general factoring companies are fairly small, very entrepreneurial and again the ultimate credit decision is really on large companies, sometimes publicly traded companies. The trade off or the quick response or ease with process it is more expensive but I think again it’s a great tool as a matter of fact if there is an opportunity where I’m not able to do the deal or commence the relationship I will work with liaisons that I have in finance community and have absolutely no problem of working with them any factor to bridge them until they become bankable. Again, just another tool out there, banks are just one form of obtaining financing. There are lot of specialty houses out there, lot of different non-bank sources of capital.

Tim: Okay

Lew: Correct me if I’m wrong Chris, the factoring and or just the sort of financing organizations, they’re not quiet as controlled by the government auditors and government agencies as much as official banks, is that true?

Chris: You are spot-on Lew, absolutely true, the NAPI hold into regulators and that allows them to increase level of flexibility and risk gap there.

Lew: Makes you feel like you’re dealing with your uncle rather than Uncle Sam?

Tim:  Correct me Chris, it seems  to me that you had mentioned when we are chatting on the phone that you also have tie ends with if I get this the academic development authorities in the various states, is that right?

Chris: Well, I can speak to Connecticut in particular and yes, most state will have economic arms either as part of the state or a quasi agency and the major goals of these economic agencies is obviously is job retention, job growth, attracting companies and sometimes that comes in the form of either outright direct loans at bank type rates or partnering up with the bank and providing what one would consider the riskier element of a loan by way of example perhaps the component of a total financing package being provided by them is in their own collateral than that which the bank provides but again just another great way to see about to put financing together on a lower rate pay system then perhaps going with the factor or private equity or mezzanine finance.

Tim: And what, for the folks here are listening is mezzanine financing?

Chris: Mezzanine financing is typically provided by privately owned company. Be it private equity where they actually take equity positions, they also make mezzanine loans or other various private organizations. They’re going to lend in secondary collateral position or even unsecured to a company where in they will be more patient than the bank as far as the duration for repayment but their compensation comes in the form of higher coupon on the loan and higher expectations as far as return.

Tim: Okay and you have also brought up Chris some interesting techniques embedded in the supply chain model. Advance payment discount for prompt payment etc. can you touch with that a little bit for us.

Chris: Absolutely, I find in the supply chain that there are key customers, key suppliers, long standing relationships and sometimes, some of the players have more capital and sometimes less. So, I have seen trade-off with perhaps margin in exchange for a little less margin, a customer will provide a down payment or an advance payment will agree to faster payment on an open account. All of which are geared toward getting cash in for working capitalist quickly as possible. Flipside I have seen, vendors that I are willing to grant what I called date ins in other words, instead of the invoice being due in 30 days, its due in 90 days and by so doing it allows the middle man to ship the product and collect the receivable with cash in hand, pay the payable. You know, anything that will speed the inflow of cash and delay the outflow of cash because at the end of the day that’s all revolving credit does bridges that gap.

Tim: And I see Lew making some notes over here to my left. Lew, you got a question or an email question for Chris.

Lew: There was an email that just came in, it’s from Eric from North Carolina. As an aerospace manufacturing in North Carolina, with the increase in aerospace business, I’m finding that I need to participate in some loan activity. I have a lot of equipment, what my question is, typically, what does a lender, a bank lender extend on equipment?

Chris: Great question Lew, its not an easy answer, what goes into and equipment loan be it new or used is valuing and typically it gets done with an independent equipment appraisal in some cases such as TD Bank where we do a lot of equipment lending, we have a specialty area that will not only value the equipment in its current market and auction values but also look at the depreciating or wasting life of that equipment and maybe an easy example is look at a car and how it goes down in book value each year. The basic structure would be an advance against the equipment at some discount factor and again depending on the type of equipment. For new equipment 80% is pretty safe but used equipment a little bit lighter than that. There is through equipment leasing upturn, it’s perhaps get a little bit higher than those advance rate and typically the structure and the repayment is governed by two factors.

One being the wasting life of that asset and two being the cash flow of the company, to this question certainly the equipment that is unencumbered on that right can be leveraged to get liquidity into the working capital cycle but I would say in conjunction with that don’t roll out revolving credit because it sounds like there is a sales and increase investment in product and conversion of that product to cash. So I would take a dual approach to the need.

Tim: Chris, while you were responding to that, we just received another email that is similar in concept and I’d like to run it by you and this is from Smitty in Georgia. With interest rates still at historic low is just a good time for manufacturers to look ahead at the growth needs and investment on new machinery now, even the sales are so not back when they were before the great recession which we continue to hunker down and wait to invest until we’re sure of the present economic direction, Chris?

Chris: Boy, that’s a tough question, I think it’s a great question and I think any sort of investment has some entrepreneurial risk. What I would say is one has to develop a reasonable confidence level with the backlog and the sustainability there of and I also look at and advise to my clients if you are spending an enormous amount of time on maintenance and repairs of outdated equipment and you also factor in the disruption and the downtime. Sometimes it has caused us to buy that new piece or if it’s a technologically advanced in that new piece where the efficiency is in the saving are embedded you got that mix for those factors make for much easier purchase decisions. Another area to consider is entering into leases, perhaps shorter in duration and for life of the equipment but with purchase options, no easy answer but certainly a variety of options to consider.

Tim: I know Chris, at a some get together that I’ve been to recently, I’ve asked some of my friends who are  successfully wealthy, what they’re doing in the current economic condition and their response so far has been if you’re  buying gold bullets that they have a dual purpose in hunkering down. What do you see or what does TD Bank see going into the future of 2014, I’m sure you’ve done economic studies on it, what’s the bank see Chris?

Chris: Well, we see slow moderate growth, we see the inventory of idle housing coming down or starting to see at least in the East Coast some optic in the housing market, I’ll bet its not strong yet but we are getting some price appreciation, some increase from very, very low levels and new housing starts.  I can tell you on the consumer side, large purchases are coming back, several auto dealerships that I do business with year over year new car sales up 25%. We are seeing some levels of some optimism there is also a lot of money out there parked on the side lines cautiously waiting and I am seeing some of that money coming in to funds acquisitions of companies, we are seeing some merger in acquisition activity heating up again. Again, slow moderate pace on all of these activity levels, don’t see rates going gang buster, I do not see the economy improving rapidly over the next year.

Tim: Does TD Bank do any economic projections, Chris? Do they look at the GDP and say, we think GDP is going to be a 1 point or a 2 point for 2014?

Chris: We have a very extensive economic research that gets done provided to lenders, we are fairly liberal about sharing some of that with our good clients and again I think what I’m summing up pretty much echoes the sentiment of our economist.

Tim: Well, it sounds like and we are going to take a commercial break here in a few minutes and as we listen to Brad Holcomb  from the Institute of Supply Management and we hear  from you and we are hearing Thomas that we had a chance to have them on the show. The 2014 is kind of projected to be kind of a quiet growth here, no one is talking 4% growth, maybe, it’s a 1.7% to a 2.4%. Lew, how do you see this, about the same way?

Lew: Yes, its not jumping through hoops, I’m hoping that 2014 continues on that slow growth path.  I’m hopeful that traditionally the year of the Presidential election is when everybody starts breaking loose with their box and pulling out the money from the deep pockets and starts spending some money.  If that’s the case, we are talking about a 2-3 year slow upward trek and that’s fine as far I’m concern, better than 2008 for sure.

Chris: Lew, I agree with you and the other thing is I think that provided that the growth doesn’t overheat, I see inflation stands fairly low, I see interest rates being pretty low which I think going back to your gentleman’s  question about today’s investment equipment they are important consideration.

Tim: Great, lets take a quick commercial break and we will be right back with Manufacturing Talk Radio.

<Advertising commercial – Played>

Tim: Alright, lets go back to Tim and Lew and their guest as they look into their crystal ball in the last 10 minutes or so here and give us an analysis of where the country is going here.

Lew: Well, there seems to have a lot of interest coming in over the emails and I have another one here and I want to make sure that I get it in before the end of the show. Chris, Bob from Maria, the Georgia, how do we contact with you folks, your URL address, is there a general email address that folks can communicate with TD Bank, Chris?

Chris: Well, certainly on the commercial side if folks want to send me an email at Christopher.rallo@td.com. If they are in the local market, I would gladly personally handle them but in the case of Georgia for example, I would get them in contact with the closest branch and or loan officer. Again, our branch network of 1500 branches or so, all those branch managers have liaisons in the commercial lending area and we all operate no cellos in TD Bank, we all operate as a team.

Lew: Just a point of information being that Christopher and Rallo spoke in so many different  ways, could you humour me and give us the spelling of your email address.

Chris: Absolutely Lew, its C-h-r-i-s-t-o-p-h-e-r dot r-a-l-l-o@td.com.

Lew: You’ll probably be flooded by the morning.

Chris: That works for me,

Lew: Tim?

Tim: Well, it looks like we’ve covered some great grounds here, Chris, is there anything  that you feel that we may have left out, I know that we’ve had some conversations by phone last week. We have an  opportunity and we have all the opportunity to get some great insights from you, is there any particular topic that you want to talk about in the wrap-up  here that we may not have touched on, Chris?

Chris:  Actually when we went on pause for commercial break, I did think of one item that  it kind of relates back to what we were talking about on how does an operator  speed their cash flow and one area where we see increased usage is Merchant Mastercards and many times I’ve seen for the discount that the service is paying they’re getting their cash in and much quicker and depending on the nature of their client base, it works I think particularly well with smaller invoices wherein all the credit risk is basically eliminated by going the Merchant Mastercard.

Tim: I have seen that as well, I know that All-Metals and Forge Group takes credit cards and I’m often surprised when they talk to Lew, their size of a transaction that will pop on the credit card, Lew what’s your experience there?

Lew: We had close to a $100,000 charges on our Master and Visa Card, American Express seems to be little bit more expensive and Visa and Mastercard seems to give that kind of credit to a manufacturing companies. So we do actually quiet a bit, its good for us, its good for our clients who doesn’t have another source of financing and we get our money in a matter of few days instead of a few months.  We find it probably the best of all avenues.

Tim: Yes I think unless you’re operating on a razor thin margin is that a couple of percentage points against the lost opportunity cost of money waiting 2-3 months to get your money is probably a great advantage Chris, would you agree?

Chris: Absolutely and the other advantage and again I go to the smaller invoices where they’re non-verifiable account, maybe new, new business opportunities for a company, all the credit risk has been eliminated and so its not just the time delay its also an elimination of credit risk because as we all know, one hit can really wipe out a lot of effort on new business.

Lew: Yes, its very true, one hit can take your margin can take your margins down significantly and really hurt your profits.

Tim: Lew, we’ve been chatting back and forth for many weeks now and is there any particular on this subject before we wrap up here that you want to share with our listening audience?

Lew: I pretty much touched on the topics that have come through the emails and the points set Chris has brought up and we do actually, the way our company is going right now is very likely that we will ultimately get to more traditional banking relations even though we do like borrowing money from our uncle. Uncle Sam needs our money too and we have no problem with him in that regard, not to get political, that pretty much wraps up my thought on that, Tim.

Tim: Great and Chris, I want to thank you for all of the great information you’ve been able to share with out listeners today I think it helps takes some of mystery out of banking if you will, I know there’s always a concern by the business owner, can I really do business with the bank, should I bother talking to a bank. I would suggest to them that its always worth a conversation with your banker, particularly dealing with TD Bank where they can steer you and help you develop relationship with other resources so we want to thank you for being a guest on our show today.

Chris: Thank you very much Tim, thank you very much, Lew, it was certainly a pleasure and as you can tell I have a passion for this business so to the extent I can help any of your constituency, please let me know.

Lew: Again, thank you Chris, we appreciate you being on the show and again by the number of emails that we had coming in it seems that you struck a chord with a quiet a bit the manufacturers we’re dealing with so thank you very much.

Tim: Well, its been a great show, we have  another show coming up on, looks like its going to be Tuesday, March 4th with Brad Holcomb who will give us an update on the ISM number as we know 1 month is not a trend make in talking with Brad in the last show that he was on, actually every month he’s kind of evaluate from the bottom up so that 51.3 was just kind of a 30-day indicator, Lew what’s your sense of what’s going on here.

Lew: I wanted to point out that to those of you who have tuned in late or not at all, you can go to manufacturingtalkradio.com and you can listen to the entire show  and we will probably have this version of the show loaded by 5:00PM Eastern Standard Time and we have shows going back to October and you will find it most interesting and send in your comments to us, we’d like to hear from our listeners perhaps about other potential guests or topics that are addressing your particular businesses. So thank you again Chris and Tim?

Tim: Yes, Lew you bring interesting point and if you are listening and feel you’d like to be a guest on our show, please send us an email so that we can become familiar with you and see what you can bring to ManufacturingTalkRadio which pretty much wrapped up our show for today, thanks everyone!